Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(13:15) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to LV 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model