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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end pushed ob at LV 41 for 2 yards (24-J.Abram).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.45 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model