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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to ARI 18, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 21 for 3 yards (10-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.85 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP