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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 14-A.Lee punts 30 yards to LV 41, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model