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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model