Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX offense: -0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- JAX defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to WAS: Carson Wentz (WAS) -0.011 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.073 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
JAX
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:01 FG JAX (12:01) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – WAS 0
- Q1 07:39 TD WAS (7:39) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – WAS 6
- Q2 11:52 TD WAS (11:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 1-J.Dotson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – WAS 13
- Q3 08:54 TD JAX (8:54) 70-C.Van Lanen reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 25-J.Robinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – WAS 14
- Q3 01:20 FG JAX (1:20) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 12 – WAS 14
- Q4 12:08 FG JAX (12:08) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 15 – WAS 14
- Q4 11:52 TD JAX (11:52) 25-J.Robinson right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 21 – WAS 14
- Q4 09:43 TD WAS (9:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – WAS 20
- Q4 01:52 TD WAS (1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-J.Dotson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – WAS 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(12:01) 10-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(10:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-D.Milne to WAS 28 for 9 yards (45-K.Chaisson).
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:16) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to JAX 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 29 for 2 yards (41-J.Williams).
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%
(5:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 1-T.Etienne.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 19 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 92%
(:20) 10-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:06) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to JAX 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 61%
(6:54) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%
(1:20) 10-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 85%
(12:08) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%
(6:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.