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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 69

Washington Commanders 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to JAX 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 29 for 2 yards (41-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.07 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model