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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to WAS 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-D.Milne to WAS 28 for 9 yards (45-K.Chaisson).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model