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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model