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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 57

Washington Commanders 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP