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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 68

Washington Commanders 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to JAX 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model