Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SEA offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- DEN offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
- SEA defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- QB edge to DEN: Geno Smith (SEA) -0.016 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.010 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
DEN
SEA
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:37 TD SEA (11:37) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-W.Dissly for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – SEA 6
- Q1 06:59 FG DEN (6:59) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – SEA 7
- Q2 07:25 FG SEA (7:25) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson. DEN 3 – SEA 10
- Q2 05:46 TD DEN (5:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-J.Jeudy for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – SEA 10
- Q2 02:31 TD SEA (2:31) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – SEA 16
- Q2 00:04 FG DEN (:04) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 13 – SEA 17
- Q4 06:16 FG DEN (6:16) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 16 – SEA 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%
(6:59) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 7Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%
(3:00) 7-G.Smith up the middle to DEN 7 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 31-J.Simmons). Official measurement
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Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%
(7:25) 5-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%
(:04) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(7:42) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (6-Q.Diggs, 10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (6-Q.Diggs), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 2. 30-M.Jackson to SEA 10 for 8 yards (14-C.Sutton). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-M.Washington to DEN 20 for 3 yards (25-T.Homer).
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Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(6:16) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 76 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(4:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 46 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 40%
(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.