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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 13 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon right tackle to SEA 1 for no gain (6-Q.Diggs, 10-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (6-Q.Diggs), RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 2. 30-M.Jackson to SEA 10 for 8 yards (14-C.Sutton). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 1, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model