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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 22

Denver Broncos 10 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model