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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 46

Denver Broncos 16 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.56 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model