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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 12

Denver Broncos 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP