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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 7-G.Smith up the middle to DEN 7 for no gain (93-D.Jones, 31-J.Simmons). Official measurement

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.72 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model