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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2022-01-23 · 15:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

LA
38.6%
TB
61.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (TB): +0.158 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

LA

Taylor Rapp S Out Concussion
Andrew Whitworth T Out Knee
Buddy Howell RB Doubtful Hamstring

TB

Ronald Jones RB Out Ankle
Breshad Perriman WR Out Hip
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Questionable Hamstring
Cyril Grayson WR Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Ankle
Tristan Wirfs T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30
–
TB 27

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:04 FG LA (8:04) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 03:34 TD LA (3:34) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 86-K.Blanton for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – TB 0
  • Q1 00:37 FG TB (:37) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. LA 10 – TB 3
  • Q2 14:28 TD LA (14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 10-C.Kupp for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea]. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LA 16 – TB 3
  • Q2 02:23 FG LA (2:23) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 20 – TB 3
  • Q3 07:11 TD LA (7:11) 9-M.Stafford up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB-56-R.Nunez-Roches was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. LA 26 – TB 3
  • Q3 03:06 FG TB (3:06) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. LA 27 – TB 6
  • Q3 00:16 TD TB (:16) 64-A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. 7-L.Fournette right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – TB 12
  • Q4 03:27 TD TB (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – TB 19
  • Q4 00:46 TD TB (:46) 7-L.Fournette right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – TB 26
  • Q4 00:04 FG LA (:04) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 30 – TB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:54) 8-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:04) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:26) 8-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to LA 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell to LA 29 for 6 yards (48-G.Stuard).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 81%

    (:37) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:30) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to LA 28, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell to LA 49 for 21 yards (49-C.Gill, 32-M.Edwards).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (9:05) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 89%

    (2:23) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 23%

    (12:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:39) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to LA 39, Center-97-Z.Triner. 19-B.Powell ran ob at TB 28 for 33 yards (98-A.Nelson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (3:06) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 77%

    (1:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-S.Miller to LA 13 for 16 yards (11-D.Williams).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for 5 yards (18-B.Skowronek). TB-1-J.Darden was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on LA-20-E.Weddle, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (6:36) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 73%

    (4:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 84-C.Brate.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-G.Bernard to TB 23 for 2 yards (18-B.Skowronek; 46-G.Haley).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (:46) 7-L.Fournette right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.