4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans (5-J.Ramsey). PENALTY on LA-20-E.Weddle, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP