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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model