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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 21

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP