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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 3-R.Succop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.24 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model