Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 66

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(4:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-G.Bernard to TB 23 for 2 yards (18-B.Skowronek; 46-G.Haley).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.77 EP
59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model