PIT @ BAL — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Tomlin

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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

PIT

42.9%

BAL

57.1%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
BAL defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
BAL offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
QB edge to PIT: Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.091 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.088 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20

–

BAL 22

Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

PIT

Isaiah Buggs DE Out Illness

Buddy Johnson LB Out Foot

Dan Moore T Doubtful Ankle

BAL

Anthony Averett CB Out Ribs

Lamar Jackson QB Out Ankle

Odafe Oweh LB Doubtful Foot

Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Ankle

Ben Cleveland G Questionable Head

Ben Powers G Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 16

–

BAL 13

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:08 FG PIT (6:08) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – BAL 0
Q2 00:14 FG BAL (:14) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 3 – BAL 3
Q3 12:40 TD BAL (12:40) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – BAL 9
Q3 07:45 FG PIT (7:45) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 6 – BAL 10
Q4 02:58 TD PIT (2:58) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 11-C.Claypool for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – BAL 10
Q4 01:17 FG BAL (1:17) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. PIT 13 – BAL 13
Q5 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 16 – BAL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 56

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP

p(convert) 48%

(12:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

(6:08) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 58% p(FG) 46%

(14:18) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Wallace. Fake punt.
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(12:28) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BAL 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(11:36) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 40 for 7 yards (85-E.Tomlinson). PENALTY on PIT-27-M.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 39.
Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 42

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 54%

(8:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 26 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(5:40) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to PIT 19, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(4:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.
Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 51%

(2:43) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-80-M.Boykin.
Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(1:52) 6-P.Harvin punts 33 yards to PIT 40, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(:14) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 22

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%

(7:45) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 60%

(5:40) 4-S.Koch punts 23 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q3 PIT 4th & 16 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(4:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 25 for no gain (41-R.Spillane).
Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 17

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

(1:09) 2-T.Huntley up the middle to PIT 15 for 2 yards (57-M.Adams).
Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 34%

(10:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 77

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP

p(convert) 73%

(8:19) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to PIT 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to 50 for 23 yards (30-C.Westry).
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 28 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 83%

(1:17) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 70%

(:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(:16) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-26-G.Stone.