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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 25 for no gain (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model