Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(:16) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-26-G.Stone.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.34 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -1.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model