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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.86 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model