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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Wallace. Fake punt.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model