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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

KC
50.4%
CIN
49.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.163 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.138 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
CIN 22
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Questionable Shoulder

CIN

Jalen Davis CB Out Ankle
Cameron Sample DE Out Hamstring
Germaine Pratt LB Questionable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 31
–
CIN 34

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 TD KC (9:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-D.Robinson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 02:54 TD KC (2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-T.Hendrickson]. KC 13 – CIN 0
  • Q1 02:13 TD CIN (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – CIN 6
  • Q2 13:02 TD KC (13:02) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – CIN 7
  • Q2 07:46 TD CIN (7:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – CIN 13
  • Q2 02:22 TD KC (2:22) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – CIN 14
  • Q2 00:46 FG CIN (:46) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. KC 28 – CIN 17
  • Q3 13:39 TD CIN (13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – CIN 23
  • Q4 11:48 TD CIN (11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – CIN 30
  • Q4 06:04 FG KC (6:04) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 31 – CIN 31
  • Q4 00:02 FG CIN (:02) 2-E.McPherson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. KC 31 – CIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to CIN 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:07) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 72%

    (10:11) 66-A.Blythe reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 81-B.Bell. 81-B.Bell up the middle to CIN 29 for 2 yards (92-B.Hill).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:53) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to KC 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 17-M.Hardman to KC 37 for 29 yards (17-S.Morgan).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (:46) 2-E.McPherson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to CIN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 24 for 3 yards (83-N.Gray; 45-M.Burton).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins to KC 38 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 35%

    (5:17) 10-K.Huber punts 27 yards to KC 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Robinson to KC 21 for 3 yards (48-A.Calitro).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 35%

    (1:18) 5-T.Townsend punts 31 yards to CIN 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%

    (6:04) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.