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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins to KC 38 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model