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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to CIN 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 24 for 3 yards (83-N.Gray; 45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model