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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 31

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 66-A.Blythe reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 81-B.Bell. 81-B.Bell up the middle to CIN 29 for 2 yards (92-B.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model