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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to CIN 23, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP