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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 10-K.Huber punts 40 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.10 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP