Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- HOU offense: -0.262 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- QB edge to LAC: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.169 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.140 EPA/dropback
- LAC offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- HOU defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LAC on 3 more days rest than HOU
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
LAC
HOU
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:00 FG LAC (11:00) 6-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 3 – HOU 0
- Q1 06:32 TD HOU (6:32) (Shotgun) 28-R.Burkhead left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 3 – HOU 6
- Q1 02:01 FG LAC (2:01) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 6 – HOU 7
- Q2 11:20 TD LAC (11:20) 22-J.Jackson left end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – HOU 7
- Q2 05:15 FG HOU (5:15) 16-D.Eberle 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. LAC 12 – HOU 10
- Q2 00:33 TD HOU (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – HOU 16
- Q3 05:46 FG LAC (5:46) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 15 – HOU 17
- Q4 13:40 TD HOU (13:40) 28-R.Burkhead right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 15 – HOU 23
- Q4 08:57 FG HOU (8:57) 16-D.Eberle 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. LAC 15 – HOU 27
- Q4 05:54 TD LAC (5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-J.Jackson right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 21 – HOU 27
- Q4 02:36 TD HOU (2:36) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – HOU 33
- Q4 01:59 TD HOU (1:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 37-T.Thomas at LAC 48. 37-T.Thomas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – HOU 40
- Q4 00:38 TD LAC (:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 5-J.Palmer for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 29 – HOU 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 76%
(11:00) 6-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 83%
(2:01) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-M.Ffrench. Punt Hangtime: 4.38s
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Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 75%
(5:15) 16-D.Eberle 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 75%
(11:12) 16-D.Eberle 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%
(5:46) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(8:57) 16-D.Eberle 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.