Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 83

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

(15:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-M.Ffrench. Punt Hangtime: 4.38s

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model