4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 6-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model