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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model