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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 6-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model