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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 33

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 16-D.Eberle 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model