4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL
47.0%
CLE
53.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CLE on 7 more days rest than BAL
  • BAL defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21
–
CLE 22
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BAL

Patrick Mekari T Out Hand
Miles Boykin WR Doubtful Finger
Anthony Averett CB Questionable Knee
Brandon Stephens S Questionable Shoulder
Chris Westry CB Questionable Thigh
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Illness
Anthony Levine S Questionable Knee
Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Back

CLE

Harrison Bryant TE Out Ankle
Anthony Schwartz WR Out Concussion
Greg Newsome CB Out Concussion
Jacob Phillips LB Questionable Biceps
Jordan Elliott DT Questionable Knee
Ronnie Harrison S Questionable Ankle
Malik Jackson DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 22
–
CLE 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:34 FG CLE (7:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BAL 0 – CLE 3
  • Q1 00:44 TD CLE (:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CLE 9
  • Q2 08:19 TD CLE (8:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CLE 16
  • Q2 03:34 FG BAL (3:34) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CLE 17
  • Q2 00:58 TD CLE (:58) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 12 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at BAL 15. 95-M.Garrett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CLE 23
  • Q2 00:06 FG BAL (:06) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – CLE 24
  • Q3 02:10 FG BAL (2:10) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – CLE 24
  • Q4 08:59 TD BAL (8:59) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. BAL 15 – CLE 24
  • Q4 01:20 TD BAL (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 21 – CLE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 21%

    (11:28) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 15.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 83%

    (7:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:45) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 34.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:31) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-J.Natson to CLE 23 for 8 yards (16-T.Wallace).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:21) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-J.Natson to CLE 32 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine, 57-K.Welch).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 69%

    (3:34) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%

    (1:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 56%

    (2:10) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%

    (11:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:10) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 43 for 13 yards (22-G.Delpit).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (5:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-17-R.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:05) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 47 for 2 yards (22-G.Delpit).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 54%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep left to 12-R.Bateman pushed ob at CLE 8 for 30 yards (26-G.Williams) [55-T.McKinley].

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).