Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- CLE on 7 more days rest than BAL
- BAL offense: -0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- CLE defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 14
BAL
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:34 FG CLE (7:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. BAL 0 – CLE 3
- Q1 00:44 TD CLE (:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 80-J.Landry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CLE 9
- Q2 08:19 TD CLE (8:19) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – CLE 16
- Q2 03:34 FG BAL (3:34) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – CLE 17
- Q2 00:58 TD CLE (:58) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at BAL 12 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), RECOVERED by CLE-95-M.Garrett at BAL 15. 95-M.Garrett for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – CLE 23
- Q2 00:06 FG BAL (:06) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – CLE 24
- Q3 02:10 FG BAL (2:10) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 9 – CLE 24
- Q4 08:59 TD BAL (8:59) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined. BAL 15 – CLE 24
- Q4 01:20 TD BAL (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 21 – CLE 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(13:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 21%
(11:28) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 15.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 83%
(7:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:45) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 34.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:31) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-J.Natson to CLE 23 for 8 yards (16-T.Wallace).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(6:21) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-J.Natson to CLE 32 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine, 57-K.Welch).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 69%
(3:34) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%
(1:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 15 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(6:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BAL 4th & 14 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 56%
(2:10) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 86%
(11:34) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 70Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 34%
(10:10) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 43 for 13 yards (22-G.Delpit).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 50%
(7:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%
(5:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-17-R.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(3:05) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 47 for 2 yards (22-G.Delpit).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 38 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 54%
(1:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep left to 12-R.Bateman pushed ob at CLE 8 for 30 yards (26-G.Williams) [55-T.McKinley].
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 55 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 12-R.Bateman to BAL 47 for 2 yards (21-D.Ward).
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