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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 17 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 2-D.Colquitt punts 35 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP