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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.88 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP