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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 9 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 43 for 13 yards (22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP