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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 15 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass deep left to 12-R.Bateman pushed ob at CLE 8 for 30 yards (26-G.Williams) [55-T.McKinley].

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.76 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model