4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 24 – Baltimore Ravens 15

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on BAL-17-R.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model