Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LV on 4 more days rest than WAS
- WAS defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Derek Carr (LV): +0.106 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 13
WAS
LV
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:44 TD WAS (9:44) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – LV 0
- Q2 00:09 FG LV (:09) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole. WAS 7 – LV 3
- Q3 04:57 FG LV (4:57) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole. WAS 7 – LV 6
- Q4 13:34 TD WAS (13:34) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – LV 6
- Q4 11:03 TD LV (11:03) 66-N.Martin reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – LV 12
- Q4 02:26 FG LV (2:26) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole. WAS 14 – LV 15
- Q4 00:42 FG WAS (:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 17 – LV 15
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 30%
(6:21) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EPp(convert) 63%
(3:19) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).
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Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(2:19) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 24 for 16 yards (22-K.Nixon).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 50%
(14:10) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to LV 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.
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Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%
(7:54) 6-A.Cole punts 38 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 51%
(1:49) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.
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Q3 LV 4th & 18 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(12:13) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-D.Carter to WAS 23 for 13 yards (22-K.Nixon; 46-C.Tinker).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(8:27) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to LV 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%
(4:57) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%
(2:26) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%
(:42) 16-B.Johnson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.