Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 71

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to LV 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-33-R.Teamer, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model