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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 43

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model