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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 66

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LV 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 18 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP